Russia is preparing a breakthrough near Pokrovsk

Russian forces are intensifying efforts around Pokrovsk, deploying experienced marine units and shifting tactics to infiltrate the city in small groups while avoiding large-scale clashes. Their main objective is to approach Ukrainian drone and mortar positions, stretch defenses, and expand control over the "gray zone." On the flanks, Moscow has stepped up assaults with armored and motorized vehicles, aiming to disrupt supply routes and encircle the area.

At the same time, Russian troops have reduced airstrikes on frontline positions but increased strikes on civilian infrastructure. Ukrainian officials report that nearly all housing in Pokrovsk has been damaged. Despite this, Ukraine’s defenders maintain full control of their positions and continue to repel enemy advances.

Ukraine’s Airborne Assault Forces warn that Russia is concentrating troops and equipment for a potential “decisive breakthrough” toward the Pokrovsk-Kramatorsk-Sloviansk line. However, monitoring group DeepState reports that Russia’s advance slowed by 18% in August, while Ukrainian troops pushed back and liberated several settlements, including Novomykhailivka.

Russia can produce up to 2,700 Shahed-type drones per month

Russia now has the capacity to produce up to 2,700 Shahed-type “kamikaze” drones per month, according to Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR). Spokesperson Andrii Yusov said Moscow has ramped up production of Geran-2s — the Russian-modified version of Iranian Shaheds — and is also manufacturing large numbers of decoy drones designed to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.

Drone swarms have become a defining feature of Russia’s war strategy, combining Shaheds with missiles and guided bombs in massive strikes. Since the start of September alone, Russia has launched more than 1,300 strike drones, nearly 900 guided aerial bombs, and dozens of missiles, President Volodymyr Zelensky said. Ukraine’s defenders describe the growing drone campaign as one of the most difficult challenges for both its own forces and Western partners supplying air defense systems.

Kyiv is pushing to scale up its domestic drone production in response. Zelensky has ordered Ukrainian manufacturers to build at least 1,000 interceptor drones daily, while military officials continue testing new electronic warfare and counter-drone technologies. Russia, meanwhile, has already carried out record-breaking strikes — including a July 9 attack that saw 741 drones launched in a single night.

Nearly 700,000 Russian soldiers are currently deployed in Ukraine

Nearly 700,000 Russian troops, including National Guard, special forces, and support units, are currently deployed in Ukraine, Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) spokesperson Andrii Yusov said on Sept. 5. Most of them are concentrated in Donetsk Oblast, highlighting Russia’s priority to seize territory in the east. Ukraine fields around 900,000 service members nationwide, but President Volodymyr Zelensky has acknowledged that Russia still enjoys a numerical edge in certain front-line sectors due to force concentration.

Despite suffering over a million casualties since launching its full-scale invasion, Russia has offset losses through a steady flow of new contract soldiers. Reinforcements have also come from North Korea, which deployed 11,000-12,000 troops to Russia’s Kursk Oblast in late 2024. These units helped repel a Ukrainian incursion but reportedly suffered around 2,000 killed in combat. While North Korean forces remain on Russian soil, their role in the conflict is expanding.

Pyongyang has become one of Moscow’s most important military partners, supplying soldiers, artillery shells, and ballistic missiles. Yusov said that 40-60% of the artillery shells fired at Ukrainian troops are now North Korean-made, calling this support a decisive factor in sustaining Russia’s firepower. Without it, he added, Russia’s ability to conduct large-scale strikes would be far more limited.