Does Putin plan to end the war this year?

Russian President Vladimir Putin is pursuing a strategy of gradual victory in the war, aiming to wear down Ukraine’s army and state through prolonged conflict. However, this plan faces significant challenges. Despite efforts in 2025, Western powers have not succeeded in altering Putin’s belief in the effectiveness of sustained pressure on Ukraine.

Is Putin going to end the war in Ukraine? And what can play the crucial role in this conflict?

From his public statements, it is clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to a strategy of slow but steady advancement of his forces along the front, without setting clear deadlines. At the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in June 2024, he outlined this doctrine: gradual territorial gains, blocking Ukrainian counteroffensives, and achieving victory by wearing down Ukraine’s armed forces. The Kremlin’s plan assumes that Ukraine will be unable to reclaim significant territories and that Russia can sustain its offensive potential despite losses. At a press conference on June 19, 2025, Putin reaffirmed his adherence to this approach, considering it viable even a year after first announcing it.

Putin’s strategy is based on key assumptions: that Western aid to Ukraine will gradually weaken and that Ukraine’s resources will eventually be depleted. However, these assumptions are not set in stone — much depends on how events unfold. The situation could shift if Western nations maintain or increase their support for Ukraine. At the same time, Russia itself may face growing internal economic challenges and shortages in defense production in the coming years, which could undermine its ability to sustain a prolonged war.

Rising oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, could temporarily boost Russia’s financial resources — unless countered by new sanctions. At the same time, increased Western military aid combined with stronger economic pressure on Moscow could shift the balance of power. Such coordinated actions might force the Kremlin to make concessions and ultimately agree to end the conflict on terms more favorable to Ukraine.

Large Russian drone attacks on Odesa killed one and injured 14

Russian forces launched a massive drone attack on Odesa overnight on June 20, killing one civilian and injuring at least 14 others, including three emergency workers, according to Ukraine’s Prosecutor General's Office.

The strikes began around 1 a.m. and hit over 10 targets, including seven residential buildings. A 23-story building caught fire between its 18th and 20th floors, prompting the evacuation of over 600 people.

In a separate strike, a four-story building was engulfed in flames, injuring three firefighters when part of the structure collapsed. All are hospitalized in stable condition.

Odesa’s main train station also sustained damage, though no injuries were reported there. Search and rescue operations continue as authorities assess the full impact.

Russia aims to maintain and gain assaults on Ukraine in June

The DeepState project reported that Russian forces have worked to sustain the intensity of their assault operations in June, with attacks increasing notably in the month’s second decade.

According to their analysis, while May saw an average of 184 attacks per day, June has averaged 186, with more than 200 attacks daily between June 10 and 14.

Russia’s assaults have been concentrated mainly on the Pokrovsk front (32% of all attacks), followed by the Kursk front (16.4%), Novopavlivka (15%), Lyman (10.3%), and Toretsk (9.5%). These five areas together accounted for 83% of all Russian offensive actions.

Tensions grow over Zelensky's top aide Andriy Yermak’s Role in U.S.-Ukraine Relations

Officials in Washington are reportedly frustrated with Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukraine's Presidential Office and a top aide to President Volodymyr Zelensky, according to Politico. Citing 14 U.S. and Ukrainian sources, the report claims Yermak's diplomatic approach is seen as abrasive, poorly informed, and potentially harmful to Kyiv’s efforts to maintain U.S. support—especially under President Donald Trump.

While the Biden administration tolerated Yermak’s difficult style, Trump’s team appears far less willing. Some U.S. officials fear Yermak misrepresents American positions to Zelensky and complicates Ukraine’s already fragile standing in Washington. One source described him as a “bipartisan irritator” whose presence now risks weakening Ukraine’s diplomatic leverage with a U.S. president more critical of Kyiv and friendlier toward Moscow.

During a last-minute visit to Washington in early June, Yermak reportedly struggled to arrange meetings with Trump officials. Some insiders went so far as to call him an “existential liability for Ukraine,” describing his tone as entitled and dismissive of U.S. political realities.

Yermak responded to the criticism by standing firm: “If that means being considered ‘challenging’ by others — so be it. I come to speak about the country I know best: Ukraine.”

With Trump continuing to block new aid for Ukraine and warm to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the rift over Yermak could have real consequences for Ukraine’s wartime diplomacy.