Russia is getting ready for more large-scale offensives in Ukraine

Russia is significantly increasing its production of rockets and percussion drones, a development that suggests preparations are underway for even larger-scale attacks on Ukraine in the coming months, according to a new assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

In a report analyzing the combined missile and drone strikes carried out by Russian forces during the night of July 26, ISW notes that Russia’s defense industry has accelerated weapons manufacturing efforts. The analysts warn that this surge in production will likely enable Russia to launch increasingly extensive attacks through the fall of 2025.

“By November 2025, Russia may be capable of deploying up to 2,000 drones in a single large-scale assault,” the report estimates, underscoring the growing threat posed by Moscow’s expanding arsenal.

The assessment stresses the urgent need to bolster Ukraine’s air defense capabilities in response to the mounting pressure. With Russia continuing to intensify the scale and frequency of its aerial assaults, ISW highlights the critical role of Western military assistance—particularly U.S.-made Patriot missile systems—in defending Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

“Larger and more coordinated Russian strike packages further underscore the strategic necessity of enhancing Ukraine’s air defense, especially with the deployment of American Patriot systems that are proven effective against ballistic missile threats,” the report concludes.

The findings serve as a stark reminder of the evolving nature of the conflict and the importance of sustained international support for Ukraine’s defense efforts.

Russia launched an overnight aerial attack on Kyiv

Overnight on July 28, Kyiv was rocked by a barrage of explosions as Russia unleashed a wave of missile and drone attacks across multiple regions of Ukraine. At least eight people were injured in the capital, including a three-year-old child, according to local officials.

A high-rise apartment building in Kyiv’s Darnytskyi district suffered significant damage. The blast wave shattered windows from the 6th to the 11th floors, and four people were hospitalized—one of them in critical condition, said Tymur Tkachenko, head of the Kyiv City Military Administration.

The large-scale overnight assault came just days after the third round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine concluded in Istanbul on July 23. Despite diplomatic efforts, no ceasefire agreement was reached. The talks took place against the backdrop of increasing international pressure, including a warning from U.S. President Donald Trump, who threatened to impose steep tariffs on Russia if a deal is not reached within 50 days of his announcement.

Kyiv's first air raid alert sounded at 10:15 p.m. local time on July 27, followed by the first wave of explosions around 10:30 p.m. Journalists on the ground reported another series of blasts at approximately 4 a.m. The city’s air defenses were active throughout the night, confirmed Mayor Vitali Klitschko.

While Ukrainian authorities do not typically disclose detailed information about the impact on military or strategic sites, initial assessments show that the attack was one of the largest in recent weeks.

According to Ukraine’s Air Force, Russia launched a total of 324 Shahed-type attack drones, along with four Kh-101 cruise missiles and three Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 309 drones and two of the Kh-101 missiles. Two cruise missiles and 15 drones struck three different locations. The Kinzhal missiles reportedly failed to hit their intended targets.

President Volodymyr Zelensky praised Ukraine’s air defense forces for their performance during the attack. He stated that Ukrainian forces delivered “strong results” by shooting down dozens of Shahed drones. He also emphasized that efforts to strengthen Ukraine’s aerial defenses are ongoing, with more funding being allocated for domestic drone production. Additional talks with international partners are expected later this week.

As a precautionary measure, Polish and other NATO aircraft were scrambled in response to the aerial assault—standard protocol during Russia’s mass strikes near the alliance’s eastern border.

The overnight bombardment served as a grim reminder that, despite diplomatic engagements, the war continues to escalate, with civilian populations in major cities like Kyiv facing renewed threats from the sky.

Trump will shorten the Ukraine deadline for Putin to 10–12 days

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on July 28 that he plans to shorten the 50-day deadline he had given Russian President Vladimir Putin to reach a peace agreement in Ukraine, citing continued Russian attacks and a lack of progress.

Speaking alongside U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the Turnberry golf club in Scotland, Trump expressed frustration with the Kremlin leader following recent missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv.

“We thought we had that settled numerous times, and then President Putin goes out and starts launching rockets into some city like Kyiv and kills a lot of people in a nursing home or whatever,” Trump said. “So we are going to have to look, and I am going to reduce that 50 days that I gave him to a lesser number because I think I already know the answer — what is going to happen.”

Trump now says the deadline will be reduced to 10–12 days starting July 28. “There’s no reason in waiting,” he said. “It’s 50 days, I wanted to be generous, but we just don’t see any progress being made.”

When asked whether he still hoped to meet with Putin, Trump replied, “I’m not so interested in talking anymore. He talks with such nice conversations, such respectful and nice conversations, and then people died the following night.”

On July 14, during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House, Trump had warned that unless Russia agreed to a ceasefire within 50 days, the U.S. would impose up to 100% secondary tariffs targeting Russian trade and energy exports. While direct U.S.-Russia trade remains limited, secondary sanctions are expected to have wider impact by targeting nations that continue buying Russian oil.

Despite the warning, Russia has continued large-scale attacks on Ukrainian cities and maintained military operations along the front line, particularly in Donetsk and Sumy oblasts.

Trump’s revised deadline follows the latest round of peace talks held in Istanbul on July 23. The negotiations failed to produce a ceasefire, as both sides remain far apart on core demands. Russia continues to insist on conditions such as a NATO membership ban for Ukraine, demilitarization, and legal guarantees for Russian language and religious groups in Ukraine.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently said that Trump is “losing his patience” with Moscow and warned that sanctions may come sooner than initially planned. “The time has come for some action,” Rubio said.