Putin will not give up his goals in Ukraine even after ultimatum from the US President Donald Trump

Despite U.S. President Donald Trump's ultimatum to end the war in Ukraine within 50 days or face severe tariffs, Russian President Vladimir Putin shows no intention of backing down from his objectives. According to an analysis by Professor Michael Kimmage and researcher Maria Lipman in Foreign Affairs, Putin is prepared to escalate the war, even if it means resorting to forced mass mobilization.

For over 25 years, Putin has built what the authors call a "sinister peace" in Russia—a system where everyday citizens can live their lives so long as they don’t openly oppose the Kremlin. Repression is selective, targeting only vocal critics. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine was initially envisioned as a quick, victorious campaign to boost Russia’s regional power. Instead, over three years of protracted war have only weakened the Russian Federation.

Kimmage and Lipman argue that neither battlefield setbacks, economic strain, nor pressure from Trump are likely to compel Putin to concede. “If pushed, Putin is more likely to abandon domestic balance and enforce brutal mobilization policies,” they write. “In Ukraine, he is willing to risk everything.”

Still, the situation for Ukraine is not considered dire. The territories Russia currently occupies are not essential for Ukraine’s survival as a sovereign state, and major Ukrainian cities remain out of reach for Russian forces. Even if Trump’s ultimatum fails to yield results, Ukraine continues to receive growing support from Europe.

Meanwhile, signs of a deepening economic crisis are emerging inside Russia—acknowledged even within the Kremlin. Yet Putin appears undeterred. “Any outcome that leaves Ukraine outside of Russian control is, for Putin, a defeat,” the analysts conclude.

They warn that Putin retains enough tools to continue his war of aggression, including the capacity for a "cruel" mobilization with severe penalties for draft evasion—steps that could shatter the illusion of stability in Russia, but which he may deem necessary to pursue his goal of subjugating Ukraine.

In response to the EU’s approval of its 18th sanctions package against Moscow, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev threatened even more intense strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, reinforcing the Kremlin’s unwillingness to change course.

Erdogan and Putin discussed the resuming Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul

On July 18, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan held a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the possibility of reviving direct peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul, according to a statement from Erdoğan's office.

Erdoğan emphasized the importance of launching a third round of negotiations and reiterated Turkey’s readiness to host the dialogue as soon as both sides agree on a date. The two leaders also reportedly discussed broader bilateral and regional matters.

The most recent direct talks between Ukrainian and Russian delegations took place in Istanbul on June 2, following earlier talks on May 16—both rounds marking the first direct dialogue in over three years. During the second round, Ukraine proposed a 30-day nationwide ceasefire, which Russia rejected, offering instead a limited 2–3-day truce in select areas to recover the bodies of fallen soldiers. No agreement was reached.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov has stated that Kyiv’s goal is to arrange a direct meeting between President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Putin. Zelensky has repeatedly expressed openness to face-to-face negotiations, but Putin has so far refused, delegating talks to lower-level officials.

Turkey, which previously hosted peace talks in March 2022, remains one of the few international actors maintaining active diplomatic channels with both Kyiv and Moscow. On June 26, Erdoğan confirmed that Ankara is also working to organize a potential Zelensky-Putin summit, with possible involvement from U.S. President Donald Trump.

Trump, who recently unveiled a new NATO-EU military assistance initiative for Ukraine, issued an ultimatum to Moscow on July 14, threatening secondary tariffs if Russia does not agree to a peace deal within 50 days.

However, hopes for negotiations remain dim. Ukraine's First Deputy Foreign Minister Sergiy Kyslytsya has said the Istanbul meetings so far do not qualify as genuine negotiations, pointing to Russia’s rigid, ultimatum-like demands. Supporting this view, a July 15 Reuters report cited three anonymous Kremlin-linked sources saying that Putin remains determined to press on with the war until the West agrees to a resolution on Moscow’s terms.

Pavlohrad in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast survived one of the most intense Russian aerial attacks

On the night of July 18–19, the city of Pavlohrad in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast experienced one of the most intense Russian attacks to date, according to regional authorities. Russian forces targeted the city with a combination of missiles and drones, causing multiple explosions throughout the night and into the morning.

Serhii Lysak, head of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration, described the assault as a "hellish night and morning for Pavlohrad," emphasizing the scale and severity of the attack.

According to preliminary reports, the strikes damaged a fire station, an industrial facility, and a five-storey residential building. Fires broke out at the impacted sites, and emergency services were dispatched to respond. The full extent of the damage is still being assessed.

Russian drone attack on Odesa killed 1 and injured three

On the night of July 19, a Russian drone attack on Odesa resulted in a deadly fire that engulfed a residential building, killing at least one person and injuring three others, according to local authorities.

The assault began with a massive wave of strike drones, prompting an immediate response from Ukraine's air defense systems. Despite their efforts, several drones reached their targets, causing damage to civilian infrastructure. At approximately 1:01 a.m. local time, Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper confirmed the attack and its impact in a Telegram post.

The fire broke out on the upper floors of a nine-story residential building, spreading from the sixth to the ninth floors. Emergency responders, assisted by volunteers, managed to extinguish the flames. Five residents were rescued from the blaze, but tragically, one woman later died from her injuries.

As rescue operations continued, Governor Kiper reported that all necessary services had been mobilized to manage the aftermath. Temporary shelter and humanitarian support were organized at a local daycare center, where an operational headquarters was set up.

Odesa Mayor Hennadii Trukhanov noted that emergency crews, district officials, and Red Cross volunteers remain active on the scene.

This latest attack is part of a broader escalation by Russia, which has increased the frequency of drone and missile strikes across Ukraine. Just a day earlier, on July 18, Russian assaults had already claimed the lives of at least seven people and wounded 25 others. These developments have prompted Kyiv’s international partners to tighten sanctions against Moscow and reaffirm their support for Ukraine.