ISW Warns of Putin's 'Deceptive Compromise' Trap in Ukraine Peace Talks

Despite mounting calls for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a cunning trap, according to a new analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). While the Kremlin publicly signals openness to talks, experts warn that any agreement would be viewed by Moscow as a temporary pause, not a genuine resolution. Putin's unwavering commitment to destroying Ukrainian statehood means he would exploit a truce to regroup forces, violate terms, and resume aggression, aiming for full occupation. This "deceptive compromise" could lure Western leaders into concessions that ultimately empower Russia's long-term goals, including Ukraine's capitulation, demilitarization, and installation of a pro-Russian regime.

The ISW report highlights how Putin's demands far exceed U.S.-proposed peace plans, which suggest freezing the conflict along current front lines in regions like Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Instead, Russia insists on Ukrainian withdrawal from four annexed regions and permanent neutrality, rejecting NATO membership. Amid this, Putin amplifies propaganda, falsely claiming military victories in areas like Siversk and Lyman—territories still under Ukrainian control—to strengthen his negotiating stance. U.S. intelligence has dismissed exaggerated fears of Russia's intent to seize all of Ukraine, labeling them as disinformation to undermine diplomatic efforts. Without ironclad security guarantees, any deal risks prolonging the conflict, emphasizing the need for robust international safeguards to protect Ukraine's sovereignty and prevent further escalation.

Ukraine is working on a mechanism for overseas voting for citizens living abroad - Zelensky

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry is working to establish a mechanism that would allow Ukrainian citizens living abroad to vote in the country’s next election, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on December 20.

Zelensky was commenting on a potential future election that could take place as part of a peace or ceasefire agreement being discussed with the United States. Under Ukrainian law, elections are prohibited during wartime, but they could be held if martial law is lifted or if legislation is amended.

“In today’s situation, the process will be complicated due to the number of Ukrainians living abroad, but this is precisely the task of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and they have already begun working on it,” Zelensky told reporters. He added that the ministry is coordinating with international partners to ensure the necessary infrastructure abroad so that voting is accessible and convenient.

Zelensky’s remarks follow recent comments by U.S. President Donald Trump, who said in a Dec. 9 interview with Politico that “it’s time” for Ukraine to hold an election. In response, Zelensky said that holding elections would depend on security conditions guaranteed by Western allies, as well as the ability of Ukrainian soldiers to participate in the vote.

Calls for elections come as Russia continues its regular attacks across Ukraine, raising concerns about voter safety and logistics.

According to estimates by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), more than 5.8 million Ukrainians fled the country after Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022. This figure does not include Ukrainian citizens who were already living abroad before the invasion.

Zelensky also said on Dec. 18 that he supports the idea of online voting for Ukrainians abroad. “Since the beginning of the COVID pandemic, I have always supported legislative changes to allow people to vote online,” he said, adding that parliament has yet to reach a consensus on the issue.

Zelensky, who has been president since May 2019, said earlier this year that he is open to not seeking re-election once the war ends.

“It is not for Russian President Vladimir Putin to decide when and in what format elections will take place in Ukraine,” Zelensky said. “He is certainly not a citizen of Ukraine, and he will not influence the outcome or anything else.”

Russia attacks Odesa Oblast with ballistic missiles: 8 killed, 27 injured after a public bus struck

Russia attacked port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast in southern Ukraine on the night of Dec. 19, killing at least eight people and injuring 27 others, Ukraine’s State Emergency Service reported.

“Yesterday evening, Russia carried out a missile strike on a port infrastructure facility in Odesa Oblast. Some of the victims were on a bus that was at the epicenter of the strike,” the State Emergency Service said in a Telegram post.

The attack triggered a fire among cargo trucks parked at the site, Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper said earlier, adding that Russian ballistic missiles had “massively attacked” the port facility. Nearby vehicles were also damaged, while all fires have since been extinguished, emergency services reported.

Ukraine’s Air Force issued a warning about a Russian ballistic missile threat at around 9 p.m. local time on December 19. Explosions were reported in Odesa Oblast minutes later.

Port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast is a frequent target of Russian attacks. Recent strikes on the region have caused prolonged blackouts and left residents without water.

The night before the port strike, Russian drones targeted transportation infrastructure in the region, damaging a bridge on the M15 Odesa–Reni highway. As a result, neighboring Moldova temporarily closed nearby border checkpoints.

“The enemy continues to bombard our region nonstop, but we are doing everything possible to ensure people’s safety and keep transport and logistics running,” Kiper said in response to the bridge attack.

Another strike on December 13 was described by Kiper as “one of the largest” overnight attacks on the region since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Russia has repeatedly targeted Ukraine’s civilian energy, transport, and utility infrastructure as part of its broader campaign against critical infrastructure nationwide.