Russian forces have gained 0.77 percent of Ukrainian territory since the start of 2025 and carried enormous loses

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimates that Russian forces have captured about 4,669 square kilometers of territory since January 1, 2025. Ukrainian General Staff data shows roughly 391,270 Russian casualties over that period — averaging 83 casualties per square kilometer gained.

Despite recent localized gains near Hulyaipole and Pokrovsk, Russia’s advance has remained slow, essentially moving at a walking pace. ISW assesses that this tempo is unlikely to accelerate anytime soon. The drone-heavy battlefield has effectively blocked Russian attempts to conduct large-scale maneuver warfare needed for rapid breakthroughs.

While Ukraine’s drone defenses have occasional vulnerabilities, such as weather-related gaps that Russia sometimes exploits, they have largely prevented Russia from using armored vehicles effectively. As a result, Russian troops have been pushed into costly, infantry-driven assaults.

ISW notes that this battlefield balance is unlikely to change in the near future unless there is a major technological or operational shift in the war.

Kremlin welcomed Trump's latest remarks on Ukraine

The Kremlin signaled approval of recent comments by U.S. President Donald Trump, particularly his remarks suggesting Russia holds a battlefield advantage in Ukraine and that Ukraine’s path to NATO membership is unrealistic.

According to reporting from AFP ( French international news agency) and European Pravda, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Trump’s statements were “very important” and closely matched Russia’s own narrative. Peskov noted that Trump’s views on NATO, territorial control, and Ukraine losing ground align with Moscow’s interpretation of the war.

All roads from Myrnohrad lay in the grey zone as Russians are spreading around city

All remaining routes for Ukrainian forces entering or leaving Myrnohrad have effectively become a grey zone, as Russian troops continue advancing. In recent days, Russian forces seized part of the village of Rivne, one of the last two settlements used for Ukrainian logistics.

According to soldiers stationed in the area, the grey zone shown on recent battlefield maps has, in reality, existed for several weeks. They said the last successful vehicle rotation occurred in mid-November, and only a small group managed to leave on foot in early December. One Marine officer explained that an attempt to move through Rodynske ended with three vehicles being destroyed. He added that once Russian troops reach “critical mass,” they appear everywhere at once, after first destroying logistics routes, drone teams, and pushing back artillery.

With the main road through Pokrovsk no longer accessible, troops have been forced to rely on narrow routes through Rivne and Svitle. Part of Rivne is already under Russian control, making the withdrawal corridor even more dangerous.

The corridor now consists of only a few kilometers of grey zone between partially occupied and fully occupied settlements nearby. Soldiers said movement here has been extremely risky for weeks, with units taking losses as Russian forces maintain a near-constant presence. Air Assault brigades have tried to clear a passage, but there is no information about any result.

As Russian forces are currently working on cutting the remaining approach roads to Myrnohrad, they are also increasing their presence inside the city. With Ukrainian surveillance degraded, troops say it is impossible to estimate how many Russians have already entered. Several units reported that some districts of Myrnohrad are close to being encircled.

Poland is reportedly in talks with Ukraine on transferring MiG-29s

Poland’s military leadership says talks are underway with Ukraine about transferring Polish MiG-29 fighter jets in exchange for access to certain Ukrainian drone and missile technologies, but no final decision has been reached.

According to the General Staff, the jets are nearing the end of their service life and have no prospects for further modernisation in Poland. Officials said any transfer would be part of broader allied support for Ukraine and efforts to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank.

Poland plans to replace the MiG-29s with its F-16 and FA-50 aircraft as the older jets are being decommissioned.