Russia will benefit from an air truce, which Putin might offer Trump instead of a complete ceasefire

The Kremlin may support such a proposal to avoid losing Trump as a potential source of legitimacy for Russian demands on the West. It also plays in Russia’s favor because Ukraine’s ability to strike back is stronger in the air than on the ground. A moratorium on long-range strikes would remove a painful issue for both Moscow and Western governments — the supply of long-range missiles to Ukraine. This makes the proposal attractive even to Trump. It would also reduce the pressure to urgently invest in expensive air defense systems.

Strikes on cities like Kyiv and Odesa, far from the front line, are highly visible and damaging to Russia’s image. Ending these attacks could help defuse that perception. That’s why Moscow hopes Trump will support the idea — it’s more substantial than temporary ceasefires or prisoner exchanges.

Russia is trying to reshape the war in its favor, focusing it where it has the upper hand and pulling back where it doesn’t. In recent months, the war has started to hit home inside Russia — civilian casualties, oil depot fires, destroyed aircraft, airport disruptions, and communication blackouts. Ukraine has succeeded in making the war visible to many ordinary Russians.

So far, this hasn’t triggered serious public anger toward the Kremlin. But there’s no guarantee that will last. This gives Russian authorities a reason to try to “contain” the war — to make it less noticeable inside the country.

Zelensky's trust rating dropped to 58% after the anti-corruption agencies scandal - poll

Ukrainians’ trust in President Volodymyr Zelensky has dropped from 65% in June to 58% in early August, according to a new poll released on Aug. 6 by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).

The decline follows a political scandal triggered by Zelensky’s July 22 decision to sign a controversial law placing Ukraine’s main anti-corruption agencies under the control of the prosecutor general. The move sparked protests, international backlash, and accusations that the president was undermining post-EuroMaidan reforms.

Facing public pressure and warnings from the EU, Zelensky reversed course on July 31 by signing a new bill that restored the independence of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO).

Still, the damage was done. The share of Ukrainians who say they do not trust Zelensky grew from 30% to 35%, lowering his overall trust balance from +35% to +23%, KIIS said. The poll surveyed 1,022 adults by phone between July 23 and Aug. 4 in Ukrainian-controlled territory.

Yevhen Mahda, a Ukrainian political analyst, told the Kyiv Independent that the drop in trust was a direct consequence of the administration’s failure to recognize that increased powers must come with greater responsibility. “The July protests were the first public demonstrations since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, and they broke the taboo on such actions for the future,” he added.

While Zelensky’s approval remains above the lowest levels seen during the war — recorded in December 2024 — the latest figures suggest deeper discontent. In May, Zelensky briefly enjoyed a popularity bump to 74% after Ukraine signed a minerals deal with the U.S., seen as a foreign policy win. But that gain quickly faded.

“When he was defending the country’s interests and standing up to Trump, his trust rating was high,” said political analyst Ihor Reiterovych. “But once his actions appeared to be motivated by self-interest, the situation changed. That’s why his rating started to fall — and it will continue to decline. This is only the beginning. Unless, of course, another major foreign policy event occurs.”

When asked why they had lost trust, many respondents cited dissatisfaction with the broader issue of systemic corruption, rather than any direct wrongdoing by Zelensky. About 6% said the July 22 law was the main reason.

“No one expected such a strong reaction — especially over an issue that most citizens weren’t deeply familiar with,” Reiterovych added. “But because it touched on values and institutions, Ukrainians quickly organized to show their disapproval.”

This civic response, combined with pressure from European partners, forced the government to reverse course. EU leaders emphasized that the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies remains essential for continued progress toward EU membership.

According to Ukrainian media, Brussels also quietly warned that failure to roll back the law could result in frozen funding — though the European Commission later denied plans to withhold financial support.

Mahda believes the real motivator for the reversal was not the protests but the risk of Western support drying up, which could “cause serious destabilization in Ukraine’s economy and social sphere within just a few months.”

The new anti-corruption bill, passed in a rare livestreamed parliamentary session with unanimous support, officially came into force on Aug. 1. It reversed the earlier law and reaffirmed the independence of NABU and SAPO — key conditions for support from both the EU and the IMF.

Russian troops arrived in Belarus ahead of a massive military exercise

The first echelon of Russian troops and military equipment arrived in Belarus on August 6 to prepare for the upcoming Zapad-2025 joint military exercises, the Belarusian Defense Ministry announced.

The drills, scheduled for mid-September, are expected to be among the largest in the Russia-Belarus military calendar. While the Belarusian side officially stated there would be “over 13,000 participants,” NATO estimates suggest the number could reach up to 150,000 troops.

Kyiv and NATO have raised concerns that Zapad-2025 could serve as a pretext for renewed military aggression. With Russia continuing its war against Ukraine, and Belarus having served as a launchpad for the 2022 full-scale invasion, officials fear history may repeat itself.

The specific location of the newly arriving Russian troops has not been disclosed. A photo published by Belarusian authorities shows soldiers with their faces blurred, and officials say the forces are now in the final preparation phase for the exercises.

Deputy Commander of the Belarusian North-West Operational Command, Pavel Shebeko, stated that the drills would include “new forms and methods of application of ground forces” based on lessons from recent military conflicts.

The precedent set by previous joint exercises has fueled anxiety. In 2021, Russia and Belarus conducted Zapad-2021, followed by “Union Resolve-2022.” Russian troops remained in Belarus after those drills and later joined the invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory on February 24, 2022.

In February, President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia might deploy as many as 150,000 troops to Belarus — the equivalent of 15 divisions.

Though Belarus has not committed its own troops to combat in Ukraine, it has played a key supporting role. Belarus has allowed missile launches from its territory, offered military infrastructure, and provided training grounds for Russian conscripts.

Earlier this year, Belarusian Deputy Defense Minister Pavel Muraveika said that the drills would take place away from the western border to avoid heightening tensions with neighboring NATO members. But on July 23, Belarus appeared to walk back that commitment, citing what it described as increased military activity by Poland and Lithuania.